Champions League · resolved market
Will Chelsea vs. PSG end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2345e0196bb6d06ab65cb7158a3221e8b3d41b1109f7686afda3d0b4eec29082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 22c | 3,118$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.25 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Yes | 7c | 3,110$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 1,265$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.86 | 433 | 33.5%145 W · 288 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c06…04bebacked Yes | 8c | 1,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 80c | 1,151$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.15 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…694abacked Yes | 29c | 1,025$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…4d56backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…26c4backed Yes | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Yes | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 78c | 690$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 538.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffcb…f2cfbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 15c | 499.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fa…2968backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf31…d3d1backed No | 76c | 350$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…c74dbacked Yes | 25c | 336$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe852…0235backed Yes | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf98e…40a5backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 21c | 285.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 79c | 210.13$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x728a…3651backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c61…f292backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d539backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…ead6backed Yes | 23c | 106.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 77c | 106.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…c8dcbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132e…427cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 76c | 76.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 77c | 74.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…02a4backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 21c | 66.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 23c | 43.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51a…3a53backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…fa11backed No | 77c | 33.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…1811backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…f0abbacked No | 76c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chelsea vs. PSG end in a draw?this page
- Will Chelsea beat PSG?Yes won
- Will PSG beat Chelsea?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.