Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 158.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x235fe3bc4d0d454623a198226f3414cd1a295d2d9ca35ecab67eff2b5e10f097
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 52c | 29,349$15,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,017.55 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 13,719$6,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,576.77 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 45c | 7,890$3,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,550.68 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Under | 55c | 7,500$4,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 47c | 3,235$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.41 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…b408backed Over | 47c | 2,938$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 12c | 2,145$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.03 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Over | 46c | 1,603$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.57 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Over | 47c | 1,181$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Over | 48c | 1,172$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.4 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 952.56$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.08 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 47c | 937.87$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.8 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 48c | 909$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.32 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 48c | 885$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.69 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 39c | 842.02$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.97 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…d4d9backed Under | 61c | 813.05$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 55c | 699.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Over | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -7.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 508.82$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.95 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 45c | 415$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.23 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 406.66$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.11 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Under | 54c | 307.96$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.66 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 55c | 223.64$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 44c | 222.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 48c | 213.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…ef0fbacked Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 43c | 169$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Under | 57c | 145.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 49c | 136.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…dd2ebacked Under | 57c | 114.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 108.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Under | 59c | 100.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…733cbacked Under | 53c | 94.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 47c | 94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 20c | 81.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 59c | 71.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 59c | 63.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…834ebacked Over | 45c | 55.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 46c | 50.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…6324backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…e7f7backed Under | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Under | 54c | 30.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…ba5fbacked Over | 43c | 29.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Over | 43c | 28.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Over | 43c | 27.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…73ecbacked Over | 43c | 27.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Under | 59c | 22.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 158.5this page
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State WolfpackNorth Carolina State Wolfpack won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 155.5Under won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 156.5Under won
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 157.5Under won
- Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-5.5)North Carolina State Wolfpack won
- Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-6.5)North Carolina State Wolfpack won
- Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-7.5)North Carolina State Wolfpack won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.