Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x236db05fdd4fa70c4c62c4f95ea48980541d9486f6f30332b369dcd34d54db47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 1,827$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.25 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,537$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…27efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…a938backed Yes | 12c | 1,204$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 2c | 653.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 9c | 445.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 411.24$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…2de6backed Yes | 10c | 408.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 7c | 373.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 12c | 315.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 7c | 315.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f3…66bcbacked Yes | 17c | 297$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 5c | 271.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 256.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 7c | 249.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 234.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 200.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 10c | 193.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Yes | 11c | 176.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 175.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2155backed Yes | 6c | 165.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 11c | 158.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 9c | 137.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 10c | 128.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked Yes | 17c | 115.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…56c3backed Yes | 10c | 100.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 75.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 65c | 33.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.