Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8835c533ecf0a9f07e18cf612f53c8db662ce4745c4046c6231c2fea2c99c2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 11c | 749.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 645.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 16c | 521.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 9c | 415.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 16c | 369.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 12c | 292.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 12c | 282.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 281.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes | 19c | 277.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 11c | 218$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 200.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…558fbacked Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 17c | 194.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed Yes | 9c | 187.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 20c | 182.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 181.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 180.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 10c | 172.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 20c | 154$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 152.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 12c | 138.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 13c | 121.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 17c | 114.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 18c | 101.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 15c | 99.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 17c | 98.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 19c | 94.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 90.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 17c | 89.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 22c | 82.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…4743backed Yes | 15c | 65.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 19c | 64.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…c680backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 24.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 80c | 21.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.