TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,206 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes6c2,180$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.171,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes12c1,172$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.582,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes3c1,064$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0545130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf270…3c46backed Yes15c741.23$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.823831.6%12 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes7c698.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7431124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes26c662.25$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.835,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c491$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.755,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8374…6768backed Yes22c358.77$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.81933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes32c354.95$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.491,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aeb…6494backed No75c320.84$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c315$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.14,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes33c292.08$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.741,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes15c280.32$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2931219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x93a4…af3ebacked Yes63c263$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c259.38$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.136,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes13c241.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.523,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes20c204.63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1448919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes49c202.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes24c201.39$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3434918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1434922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes6c199.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes33c192.84$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6311438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes10c167.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.024,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes36c163.59$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0716046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes12c160$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.940132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes18c153.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3713035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c149.3$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.742,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No66c147$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked No67c146$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.183435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c143$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.789,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes35c142.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked Yes30c139$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.313441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b0…56e8backed Yes36c138.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502045%9 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes17c136.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6918131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c125$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad2…5b01backed Yes35c122.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.551533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes11c118.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.717231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde01…a938backed No66c112.89$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.382711.1%3 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-60.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c111.98$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.522,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes33c105.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.182638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes17c104.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3528742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No65c104.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8450373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b23…1bc5backed No68c102.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.941838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes29c101.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7721236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes29c100.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.057237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3214635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3117926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf512…79aabacked Yes31c99.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312825%7 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes27c99.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c99.28$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No68c96.59$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.593,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6248…27f6backed No67c96.52$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.473053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes55c81.13$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6227421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes36c80.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7912733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No67c79.13$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.091,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No67c77$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4127669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes31c75.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.552,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes37c74.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.062,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No48c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes35c66.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes31c65.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.917831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No64c64.22$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2632…6475backed Yes52c62.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.363246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes33c60.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc672…a817backed Yes40c57.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd62a…de09backed Yes54c57.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No65c55.75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2328737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No67c52.01$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9398565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7316840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea4…4a77backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.57659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67f4…df0fbacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1510265.7%67 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7164…24fabacked No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247550.7%38 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1454232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes26c47.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1367336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8786…6884backed No67c46.95$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.39761.9%60 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No62c46.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.782,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607c…aadbbacked No65c46.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.172369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c0…a805backed No66c44.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.297558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes32c44.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.099239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes36c44.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.965925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes27c43.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7810434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No59c42.42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.324,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9676…4374backed Yes30c41.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.472842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes27c41.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0722236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No69c40.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4646667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No71c40.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.921,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes32c40.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.882,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0514…f8c6backed Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42650%13 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x992b…d9d1backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67732.5%25 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23f3…66bcbacked Yes38c39.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.