Movies · resolved market
Will "The Beast in Me" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23f6643393b6510298f8094fe36561c02e9629cf4e9dd98e50e09a289f80ac5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110f…8f39backed No | 63c | 1,584$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.79 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,260$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…07cfbacked No | 15c | 1,032$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.32per pick | 30cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…449dbacked Yes | 34c | 990.22$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed No | 53c | 846.19$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac49…67c4backed Yes | 53c | 565.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 47c | 353$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.57 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 60c | 310.52$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2724…20f9backed Yes | 50c | 243.13$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 45c | 208.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6555…dd7ebacked Yes | 51c | 190.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…3a41backed Yes | 50c | 136$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…aae9backed Yes | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 103.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 59c | 103.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…32f3backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 71c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 36c | 52.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 48c | 43.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 49c | 30.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ceb…f801backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Beast in Me" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)this page
- Will "Kevin Hart: Acting My Age" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)Yes won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)No won
- Will "The Witcher: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.