Movies · resolved market
Will "Stranger Things: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbace7001127422886fbf6fd7da2e0d36c2462aaf4733389799e584432aae4d74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed No | 59c | 1,965$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.31 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf15c…6d09backed Yes | 43c | 605.19$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 41c | 527.33$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.13 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Yes | 27c | 510.07$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e2…c125backed Yes | 48c | 439.07$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 59c | 387.11$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.61 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…4a12backed Yes | 50c | 341.25$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes | 25c | 335.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…97fcbacked No | 64c | 300$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…736bbacked No | 72c | 299.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…876cbacked No | 73c | 290$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 37c | 195.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…449dbacked No | 73c | 171.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0a…a897backed Yes | 30c | 132.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 114.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 36c | 110.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…aae9backed Yes | 46c | 109.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 56c | 102.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 72c | 96.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 93.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…bfd7backed No | 58c | 86.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581c…4d7ebacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed No | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 22c | 69.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 57c | 62.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…9c2ebacked No | 59c | 50.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6555…dd7ebacked Yes | 49c | 49.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 69c | 46.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…bad8backed No | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 44c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…24a1backed No | 60c | 33.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…76e5backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…0f21backed Yes | 38c | 29.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed Yes | 49c | 28.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 25.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…63fdbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 59c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)this page
- Will "Kevin Hart: Acting My Age" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)Yes won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)No won
- Will "The Beast in Me" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)No won
- Will "The Witcher: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.