Movies · resolved market
Will "Kevin Hart: Acting My Age" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44aeff4b37b2b5f9945d9d23452932ccd7e5a7df2b5ff7f996a7a98cbcdd0200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 34c | 2,529$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.75 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 7c | 914.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.48 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…0f21backed No | 58c | 899.99$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…449dbacked Yes | 14c | 372.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…07cfbacked Yes | 7c | 367.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.32per pick | 30cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 331.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.53 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 53c | 300$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…55d2backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked Yes | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 7c | 161.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.74 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 51c | 155.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 150.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.08 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 30c | 137.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…07e9backed Yes | 49c | 30.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…fae3backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 28.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 52c | 25.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…a64fbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Kevin Hart: Acting My Age" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)this page
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)No won
- Will "The Beast in Me" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)No won
- Will "The Witcher: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.