Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23fb0f76c844a3be65f9e95c56be58bb729aeb412c6183fd0c32c6c38dec1e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 1,072$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.61 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 667.64$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.43 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 607.84$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 32c | 507.54$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Yes | 25c | 468.06$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 20c | 429.88$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 396$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 344.75$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 76c | 322.58$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 303.21$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 23c | 293.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 228.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 9c | 203.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 22c | 199.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 191.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 31c | 160$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 148.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 135.28$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 77c | 129.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 9c | 117.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 19c | 104.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 100.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 89.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 35c | 88.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 28c | 86.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 86.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 57c | 76.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 79c | 76.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 71.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 16c | 69.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 68.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 73c | 68.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 59.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 68c | 57.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 56.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 76c | 56.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 71c | 54.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 54.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 48.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 41.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 38.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 75c | 38.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 38.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 71c | 34.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 29.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 27.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 26.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.