Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe31f672424dbc920a1d604a43f4d13b1f519e0ff2578c12bd14028b371c4f30f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,712$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 1,128$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 777.28$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 76c | 738.5$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.99 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 70c | 731.9$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.15 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed No | 77c | 458.76$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.7 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 28c | 381.24$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 80c | 375.18$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 50c | 343.02$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 340.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 74c | 328.03$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 274.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 33c | 274$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 24c | 262.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 239$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 174.28$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 148.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 146.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 142.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 27c | 141.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 137.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 127.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 117.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 107.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 107.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 105.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 102.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 65c | 100.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 23c | 98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 45c | 97.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 23c | 86.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 73c | 80.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 27c | 78.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 77.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 20c | 75.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 75.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 73.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 72c | 69.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 24c | 65.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 25c | 65.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 61.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 22c | 59.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…99c6backed No | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 24c | 53.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 23c | 51.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 50.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 50.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 32c | 50.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 51c | 49.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…cde2backed Yes | 21c | 47.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 50c | 46.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 46.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 41.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 38.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 43c | 37.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 35c | 35.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 35.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 32.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 33c | 30.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 28.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 28.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 73c | 22.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 73c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 20.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 17.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.