TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,209 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes0c9,712$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.96671.5%1 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes25c1,128$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.568,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes20c777.28$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.54,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked No76c738.5$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.993557.1%20 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No70c731.9$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.1531454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed No77c458.76$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.73562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes28c381.24$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9234628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No80c375.18$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.767158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No50c343.02$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.891,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes24c340.69$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No74c328.03$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.237056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c274.92$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.519,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes33c274$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.381,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes24c262.09$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0926441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No79c239$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.724,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5877555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No73c199.99$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No78c174.28$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5592678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes37c148.02$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.51,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes14c146.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.661,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes23c142.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.791,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes27c141.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.265749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c137.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes21c127.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes37c117.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.374,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c107.4$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.85,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes23c107.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.355,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes29c105.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.186,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c102.13$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No65c100.24$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7645162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd44d…2305backed Yes23c98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.547213.9%10 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes45c97.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4526344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes23c86.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.921,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No73c80.45$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7275546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.721,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed Yes27c78.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2216859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes18c77.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.837,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes20c75.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1116832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes17c75.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c73.05$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.543,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed No72c69.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.810044%44 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes24c65.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.721,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes25c65.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.273,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No54c61.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.766,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1435742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes22c59.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1331943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245d…4271backed Yes19c58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.184740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No47c55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.151,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa228…99c6backed No57c54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.221376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+83.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes24c53.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8191861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked No76c52.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6318862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes25c52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed Yes23c51.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.77665.8%50 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes21c50.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.772,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No67c50.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.812,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes32c50.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc9…c353backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No51c49.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4599962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b27…cde2backed Yes21c47.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes50c46.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes54c46.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.032,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No79c42.13$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.732,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No74c41.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9188973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No73c38.08$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.381,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No43c37.66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.588,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No64c36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0843563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes35c35.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.531,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No77c35.8$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.137,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No78c32.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.014,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa957…7638backed No60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.84555.6%25 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes33c30.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.089262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No76c28.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.992,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No80c28.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.714,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No75c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8364167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.054,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No73c22.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0346743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ece…1949backed No73c21.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7117361.8%107 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No51c20.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.341,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.846457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.464859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.82,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.846857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No77c17.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.941,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.