Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11ba559bc7986914c3af0125c9727bb1d51b1e940d9060031cc5e393a6f6b97a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0456…3235backed No | 2c | 3,248$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 47c | 1,864$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.12 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 51c | 1,036$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.64 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 4c | 761.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 757.23$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 629.5$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.38 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes | 49c | 467.44$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 456.9$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 429.3$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 396$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 342.42$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 49c | 313$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.63 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 304.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 47c | 294.78$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 287.23$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.87 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 268.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 264$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 49c | 247$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 6c | 242.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 228.51$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 56c | 228.02$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 204.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 46c | 167.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 165.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 52c | 143.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 54c | 142$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 138.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 134.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 123.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 120.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 51c | 120.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 109.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 34c | 109.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 108.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 44c | 102.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 66c | 95.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 49c | 95.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 24c | 81.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 44c | 81.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 20c | 70.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 69.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 54c | 67.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 40c | 65.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 48c | 62.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 61.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 68c | 61.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 45c | 57.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 46c | 56.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 23c | 54.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 47c | 53.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 48c | 53.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 40c | 50.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 48.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 48c | 47.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 47.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 54c | 46.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 43.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 54c | 42.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 48c | 42.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 53c | 40.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 39c | 40.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 41c | 35.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 50c | 34.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 48c | 30.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 50c | 30.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 59c | 29.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 28.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 53c | 28.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 28.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 76c | 28.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 27.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 50c | 27.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 57c | 27.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 26.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 26.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 52c | 25.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 61c | 25.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.