Tennis · resolved market
Sinner vs. Djokovic – Will Sinner win by 4+ games?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2403b41b5ccdd64e9b19f7ab2a3e59db400e1f902999822a2889041aa0f76bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Yes | 51c | 771.45$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.01 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Yes | 53c | 751.15$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.15 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed No | 46c | 641.11$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.14 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 49c | 380$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.4 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…644bbacked No | 49c | 367.35$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed No | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed No | 47c | 247.17$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Yes | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed No | 49c | 204.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8099…2f05backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a62…57cabacked Yes | 52c | 192.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 50c | 157.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…6008backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…f32fbacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed Yes | 52c | 44.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…793dbacked Yes | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.