College Football · resolved market
Spread: Missouri (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2419e5e448b95e5b82e2984fc2c32a4f3d1b9ef4d0ed5f30c157442ee9ce6221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginiaof Missouri, Virginia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Virginia | 52c | 19,404$10,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,313.85 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Missouri | 48c | 17,703$8,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,497.08 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Missouri | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Missouri | 48c | 1,256$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.88 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Virginia | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +8.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Virginia | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Missouri | 44c | 342.14$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Virginia | 51c | 106$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Missouri | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Virginia | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Virginia | 53c | 83.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Virginia | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Missouri | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…f34fbacked Virginia | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Missouri | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Missouri | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Missouri | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Missouri | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Missouri (-4.5)this page
- O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Missouri (-4.5)Virginia won
- Virginia vs. MissouriVirginia won
- Virginia vs. Missouri: 1H MoneylineMissouri won
- Virginia vs. Missouri: O/U 43.5Under won
- Virginia vs. Missouri: O/U 44.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.