College Football · resolved market
Spread: Missouri (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a72379546e7bae6ff4c4de4e89568f99e4151293af26bbc5b49f39d205cb16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginiaof Missouri, Virginia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Missouri | 48c | 85,743$41,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,037.16 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Virginia | 52c | 41,938$21,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,130.26 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Virginia | 52c | 21,420$11,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,295.92 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Virginia | 53c | 9,435$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,434.53 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b2…b7b1backed Virginia | 52c | 7,920$4,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,801.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Missouri | 49c | 6,143$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,035 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Virginia | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.23 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Virginia | 53c | 5,000$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Virginia | 52c | 4,923$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,363.54 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Missouri | 48c | 4,000$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.94 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Missouri | 48c | 1,503$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.44 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Missouri | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Virginia | 52c | 1,177$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.92 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Missouri | 48c | 999.97$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia | 51c | 904.7$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.12 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Virginia | 52c | 432.12$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.42 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Missouri | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Virginia | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Missouri | 49c | 260.31$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…fdcebacked Virginia | 52c | 198.87$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Missouri | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Virginia | 53c | 126.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Virginia | 50c | 123.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virginia | 44c | 109$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…dffcbacked Virginia | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Virginia | 52c | 104.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Missouri | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Virginia | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Virginia | 52c | 90.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Virginia | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…c62fbacked Virginia | 52c | 75.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…8bb8backed Missouri | 49c | 72.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…f427backed Missouri | 49c | 70.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Missouri | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Virginia | 49c | 53.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Virginia | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3f0abacked Virginia | 52c | 41.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d57…1238backed Missouri | 49c | 40.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Virginia | 52c | 40.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Missouri | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Virginia | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed Virginia | 52c | 33.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Virginia | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…353ebacked Missouri | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Missouri | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Missouri | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Virginia | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf995…307abacked Virginia | 53c | 22.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fc…823cbacked Virginia | 53c | 22.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +153%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Virginia | 52c | 22.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…1417backed Missouri | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Virginia | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Missouri (-4.5)this page
- O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Missouri (-4.5)Virginia won
- Virginia vs. MissouriVirginia won
- Virginia vs. Missouri: 1H MoneylineMissouri won
- Virginia vs. Missouri: O/U 43.5Under won
- Virginia vs. Missouri: O/U 44.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.