NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Kings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x244df2a0ec1478fde3105031ca6bef9c336080116b6d2b4227ce3ed89b3bceba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 6,367$3,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.26 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 48c | 4,166$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.68 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 2,500$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.68 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Under | 50c | 1,560$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 1,139$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.78 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…1c8fbacked Over | 50c | 720.77$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.39 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 45c | 715.53$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.99 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67d…3e1bbacked Over | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 47c | 295$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.65 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 295$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…2de2backed Under | 55c | 285.53$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Over | 47c | 280$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 48c | 166$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 48c | 132$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 126.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 47c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 48c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 55c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 73c | 37.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…01a8backed Under | 51c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 50c | 21.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 260 | 59.6%155 W · 105 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Kings: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. KingsCapitals won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.