Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on December 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24770d9acafe7be966333fc8bfdcc7bb6de492de08de5c447e7e8c6aeb180083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,251$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 1c | 1,126$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 8c | 696.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 20c | 654.18$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 10c | 530.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed Yes | 77c | 355.9$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 6c | 334.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.53 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 65c | 309.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 42c | 284.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 25c | 235.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 15c | 231.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 143.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 79c | 126.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 77c | 115.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x078d…7c44backed Yes | 70c | 104.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 24c | 90.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked No | 20c | 70.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked Yes | 59c | 62.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 59c | 56.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed Yes | 77c | 56.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 73c | 54.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4d…0e7fbacked Yes | 75c | 53.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…9adbbacked Yes | 68c | 51.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 49.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…d443backed Yes | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c04…7031backed No | 54c | 41.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9607…0f2cbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 39.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x878b…72ecbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…2944backed Yes | 79c | 23.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…6761backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…1fd2backed Yes | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 68c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…e6d9backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on December 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on December 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.