Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on December 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae0cd84abff8320f84f5ceae13fdbea91f20b4fc42d5c90400e39a0ec6067f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,206$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 19c | 359.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 6c | 285.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 24c | 241.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 17c | 215$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 18c | 161.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 70c | 156.25$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…8078backed Yes | 19c | 122.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 120.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 23c | 119.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…608bbacked Yes | 36c | 118.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 11c | 101.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 33c | 101.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 88.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…7fecbacked No | 68c | 74.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…9adbbacked Yes | 31c | 64.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 58c | 34.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 28.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9579…d1fdbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6644…5b8fbacked No | 78c | 14.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on December 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on December 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.