Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2492253d74b4c62391389aee478b26b8495e9922dc3a682ab74fe7d58896fa79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 51c | 327.15$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.71 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 287.91$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 66c | 284.13$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.96 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 54c | 217.68$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 144.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 121.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 104.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 69c | 102$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 12c | 100.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c0…1191backed Yes | 29c | 93.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 80c | 87.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed No | 30c | 85.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 63c | 84.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 59c | 78.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 73.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 72.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 26c | 61.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 60.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 68c | 56.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 54.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 52.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 58c | 51.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 29c | 48.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 32c | 46.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 50c | 46.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 50c | 41.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 36c | 41.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 40.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 64c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 51c | 38.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 80c | 37.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 70c | 35.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 33.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 54c | 28.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 27.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 25.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked No | 76c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 67c | 19.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 18.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 64c | 18.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 70c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 67c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.