MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x249d76e0cf73bf604b946e0e7b5d5ec5c4cd4c58d9bf01481f5e834f54567819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 53c | 59,333$31,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,886.62 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 47c | 46,367$21,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,578.96 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 44,444$24,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,444.22 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Over | 47c | 30,230$14,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,107.5 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 19,121$8,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,894.63 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 46c | 5,448$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.12 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 54c | 4,938$2,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,271.6 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x227a…a09abacked Over | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 2,592$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 53c | 1,222$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.34 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 764$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Over | 43c | 667.67$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.1 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 46c | 660.5$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.83 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 649.59$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 54c | 648.85$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.47 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 54c | 585$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 479.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 12c | 359.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 62c | 325$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…235ebacked Over | 47c | 302.06$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.97 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 42c | 299$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 47c | 258$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.26 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 53c | 254.94$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 47c | 226.26$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 47c | 225.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 54c | 189.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 179.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 146.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 46c | 134$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Over | 47c | 105.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ff…479fbacked Under | 53c | 104.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 77.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 47c | 62.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Under | 54c | 59.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 55c | 46.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 46c | 34.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 47c | 31.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 75c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 60c | 19.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.