MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fc96d03339716030f6a17acdeeba5d26103d9e9fbc0cf9a476dadf4fe9c9696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 42,564$26,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,748.72 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 9,733$3,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,598.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…6209backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 8,050$2,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,978.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 7,761$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,871.57 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 4,830$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.1 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 3,870$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 2,691$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 2,222$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.54 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 1,540$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 1,528$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 1,454$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.16 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…1f2ebacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 1,418$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 1,024$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 975$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 649.99$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 22c | 578.83$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 480.03$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.13 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 465.16$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.85 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 462$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 458$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.77 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 24c | 395.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 366.65$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.99 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 362.43$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed San Diego Padres | 76c | 347.92$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 320.62$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 301$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 280$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Atlanta Braves | 17c | 255.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 250.75$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 229.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 175.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 164.79$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 137$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 135.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 133.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 132.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 108.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 99.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 85.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 20c | 80.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 76.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 74.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 71.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…fd02backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 46.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…8c41backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 36.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 36.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 32.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 28.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.