Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24d62d1077bdb66197a9f611de5113dd34ea9617bdfa53eec9da6104d2dedc13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 31c | 408.14$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 43c | 397.94$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 32c | 320.36$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.52 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 25c | 316.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.48 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 309.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 49c | 265.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 250.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 247.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 244.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.61 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 67c | 225$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 211.15$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 210.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 78c | 207.1$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.07 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 35c | 205.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 160.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 59c | 141.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 33c | 140$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…9fe1backed No | 72c | 138.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 50c | 133$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 72c | 126.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 76c | 120$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 10c | 112.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 110.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 97.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 33c | 97.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 96.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 77c | 96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 89.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 60c | 89.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 69c | 85.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 55c | 84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 75c | 80.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 75c | 76.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 76.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 74.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 71.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 69.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 70c | 68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 49c | 66.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 52c | 64.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 72c | 64.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 77c | 63.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 68c | 62.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…873ebacked No | 36c | 62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 26c | 61.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 56c | 60.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 53c | 60.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 36c | 55.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 51.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 40c | 50.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…adf9backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 41c | 49.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 41c | 48.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 42c | 48.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 58c | 47.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 46c | 43.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 60c | 43.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 48c | 41.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked No | 66c | 38.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 34c | 37.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 49c | 34.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 45c | 33.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 33.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…9154backed Yes | 49c | 33.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 54c | 30.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…9702backed Yes | 43c | 30.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 78c | 27.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 44c | 27.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 40c | 27.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 45c | 26.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 47c | 23.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 78c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 20.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 49c | 20.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 73c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 60c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 18.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 76c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 80c | 16.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.