Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x524ea73af3e8aa39825b9ea89501fa3c6411ae185ed342ce7f7b357d0321dc09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 37c | 1,338$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.14 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 76c | 881.54$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.49 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 63c | 649.82$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.29 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked No | 6c | 446.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 39c | 274.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.26 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 25c | 271.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 244.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 235$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 57c | 214.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.42 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 199.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 35c | 198.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 187.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 179.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 160.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 46c | 147.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 64c | 132.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 37c | 117$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 110.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 56c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 64c | 100.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…eeb6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 99.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 34c | 95.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 33c | 91.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 32c | 83.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 82.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 77.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 19c | 77.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 22c | 72.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 34c | 71.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 69.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 68.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 71c | 66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed Yes | 33c | 65.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 65.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 27c | 63.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 63.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…12c5backed No | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 42c | 61.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 63c | 60.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 32c | 59.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed Yes | 39c | 54.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 37c | 53.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…adf9backed Yes | 40c | 50.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 49.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 33c | 48.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 28c | 48.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 26c | 47.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 45.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 32c | 44.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe949…efccbacked Yes | 66c | 44.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 61c | 44.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 41c | 44.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 78c | 42.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 42.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 64c | 39.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 40c | 37.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 37.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e7…5fddbacked No | 68c | 34.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 65c | 33.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 38c | 32.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 27.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 26.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 54c | 26.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 22.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…48c5backed Yes | 62c | 18.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 62c | 16.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.