Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24f297d55c53d7afbb0d036763f414fb5618767f79f4188ea1fb46de4dbd78ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,686$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.92 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 452$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 55c | 278$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 44c | 214.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 187.54$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 55c | 150.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 129.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 128.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 123.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 75c | 120.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 45c | 113.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 111$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 106.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 45c | 92.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 55c | 86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 78.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 61c | 74.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 58c | 67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 43c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 62c | 56.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 57c | 52.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 51.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 50.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed Yes | 32c | 47.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 46c | 42.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 42.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…b5b2backed Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 39.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 43c | 30.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 45c | 30.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 24.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 57c | 21.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 19.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.