Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24f6fcdcf3df607a76512127ed43016a60b28c6607dc4fb85c1f35f57c68a29d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 19c | 13,387$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,512.19 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…5136backed Over | 30c | 4,098$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 66c | 3,026$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.22 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 1,816$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.01 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 34c | 1,160$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.82 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 1,089$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.38 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 14c | 714.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 13c | 517.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd130…5863backed Under | 67c | 480.15$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 75c | 412.1$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 13c | 382.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 13c | 346.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 15c | 320$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 15c | 299$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…8c32backed Over | 14c | 235.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 206.77$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed Over | 14c | 191.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 14c | 178.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 72c | 174.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 21c | 150.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Under | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Over | 14c | 95.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Over | 13c | 89.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 67c | 44.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 77c | 28.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)Dalian Yingbo FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.