Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x251d64c8c6f487599983622d0fcf5f292341dc7a85665d892c36d166d87f3873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 27c | 1,828$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 1c | 1,007$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc7…d23bbacked Under | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 78c | 641.1$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec5…257ebacked Under | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 447.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 441.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 8c | 135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1f…bdb1backed Over | 26c | 78.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f74…9745backed Over | 26c | 62.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Under | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 74c | 30.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938b…46c0backed Under | 75c | 24.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…c4a0backed Under | 75c | 19.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…c711backed Under | 75c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 77c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.