NHL · resolved market
KHL: HC Sochi vs. Ak Bars Kazan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x256dd1d13b82863fd7c85ce47bf1457650de316c96f3dd50da5b0d4f2a7a9609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ak Bars Kazanof HC Sochi, Ak Bars Kazan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,871 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed HC Sochi | 2c | 3,666$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Ak Bars Kazan | 71c | 1,041$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.41 | 480 | 50.6%243 W · 237 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed HC Sochi | 16c | 999.98$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Ak Bars Kazan | 72c | 977.83$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.22 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed HC Sochi | 30c | 976.11$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed HC Sochi | 27c | 755.26$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.22 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed HC Sochi | 31c | 299.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Ak Bars Kazan | 74c | 292.32$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Ak Bars Kazan | 72c | 202$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked HC Sochi | 30c | 195$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 74c | 176$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Ak Bars Kazan | 73c | 106$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…5c33backed Ak Bars Kazan | 71c | 101.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked HC Sochi | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Ak Bars Kazan | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Ak Bars Kazan | 79c | 92.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed HC Sochi | 29c | 82.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed HC Sochi | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed HC Sochi | 28c | 71.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed HC Sochi | 28c | 70.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Ak Bars Kazan | 74c | 63.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked HC Sochi | 31c | 61.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed HC Sochi | 31c | 58.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ak Bars Kazan | 70c | 54.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5da…f6e5backed HC Sochi | 31c | 48.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed HC Sochi | 29c | 44.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed HC Sochi | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a5ffbacked HC Sochi | 29c | 39.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed HC Sochi | 31c | 39.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed HC Sochi | 26c | 39.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Ak Bars Kazan | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…9af8backed Ak Bars Kazan | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.