Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x258fb5ed3e88abe7935c4571d37bc715fac0ee2ee9870078bc44d5868e63a73e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 3,222$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 11c | 1,635$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.86 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 805.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 2c | 800.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 35c | 550.75$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.95 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 18c | 548.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 9c | 324.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 38c | 305.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 300.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 289$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 72c | 253.49$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 250.95$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 230.96$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 16c | 224.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 23c | 219.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 34c | 207.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 189.69$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4352…e2c4backed Yes | 28c | 174.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 6c | 173.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 162.95$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 67c | 162.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 160.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 159.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 68c | 149.63$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1260…62a2backed Yes | 34c | 138.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…a631backed Yes | 31c | 130.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 128.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef2…d233backed Yes | 35c | 128.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 125.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 78c | 121.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 117.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 109.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 68c | 108.25$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 28c | 106.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 104.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 17c | 100.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 30c | 94.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 93.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 23c | 84.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…bc42backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 77.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 63c | 77.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc693…6656backed No | 71c | 73.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 71.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 70.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 65.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 64c | 61.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 61.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 66c | 60.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 40c | 59.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 34c | 59.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 62c | 54.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 70c | 52.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 34c | 52.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 39c | 51.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 31c | 49.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 47.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 38c | 41.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 38c | 39.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0a…d4e5backed Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…2b86backed Yes | 34c | 32.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 33c | 32.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 32c | 31.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…7936backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 65c | 30.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 35c | 29.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 63c | 26.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 25.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 66c | 22.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 72c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 72c | 18.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…9177backed No | 70c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…3ca9backed No | 66c | 16.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…25f9backed No | 66c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…8115backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.