Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9395b4226046f9e22e5ea2a2c748395ba6943e902b8b778872daf017f1de58b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,502$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.87 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 74c | 2,550$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.34 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 8c | 1,492$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 18c | 977.03$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 778.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 24c | 738.03$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.1 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 22c | 599.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.52 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 541.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 523.11$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 79c | 523.03$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 39c | 465.99$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.09 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 37c | 445.97$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.01 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 8c | 442.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 26c | 425.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.08 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed No | 36c | 417.95$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.55 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 408.21$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…b5bebacked No | 3c | 407.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 13c | 401.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.85 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 5c | 362.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 330.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 327.22$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 326.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 325.33$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.18 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 294.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 8c | 289.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 284$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 10c | 279.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 36c | 267.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.04 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 6c | 236.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 67c | 227.8$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 16c | 211.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 22c | 206.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.67 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 206$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 194.83$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed No | 15c | 186.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 185.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 70c | 160.66$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 78c | 157.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 77c | 155.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 30c | 155.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 36c | 150$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 13c | 146.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 59c | 145.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 48c | 143.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 26c | 142.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 12c | 139.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.46 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cee…9b51backed Yes | 19c | 137$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 130.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 126.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 125$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 41c | 123.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 119$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Yes | 22c | 111.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 77c | 107.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 58c | 102.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 28c | 98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 93.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 19c | 89.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 79c | 84.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 81.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Yes | 59c | 79.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -83%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 69c | 77.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 38c | 74.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 22c | 68.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 68.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 23c | 65.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 53c | 62.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…3368backed No | 57c | 56.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 29c | 49.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…ee5fbacked No | 77c | 46.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 28c | 44.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 66c | 40.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 51c | 40.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 74c | 40.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 33c | 34.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 34c | 32.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b846backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 75c | 26.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.