Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a946492667c39c35b7ec7fe4f293906cd4b7c4edab102313c9884518843a356
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 9c | 4,309$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.11 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,105$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,485$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 5c | 1,366$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 15c | 1,139$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.31 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,077$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 5c | 589.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed Yes | 6c | 585.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 528.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 74c | 479.87$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.07 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 9c | 477.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9a…587ebacked Yes | 24c | 423.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 7c | 412.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 10c | 361.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 337$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 301.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 18c | 287.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 25c | 267.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 262.09$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 250.79$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 11c | 221.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 6c | 210.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 206$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 29c | 205.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc693…6656backed Yes | 25c | 200.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 53c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 30c | 188.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 187.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 28c | 186.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 19c | 179.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 171.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 166.17$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 14c | 163.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 19c | 158.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 25c | 158.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 39c | 155.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 152.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 143$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 141.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 139.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 137.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…a631backed Yes | 30c | 131.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 19c | 113$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 30c | 107$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 101.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 100.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 100.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 50c | 99.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 96.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 93.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 71c | 83.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 72c | 75.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 69c | 67.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef2…d233backed Yes | 31c | 64.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 24c | 63.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 63.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…ee5fbacked Yes | 30c | 63.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…9dedbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 60.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…29acbacked Yes | 33c | 60.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 26c | 58.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 46c | 56.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 55.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 32c | 53.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 52.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 52.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 25c | 50.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…707bbacked Yes | 30c | 50.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 29c | 42.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 29c | 41.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 37.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 27c | 37.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 36.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 63c | 30.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 27.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 68c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 22.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.