MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25a8a352840a89af8ea4c81c64247d51ca543753661ef6cabdf022daf2788f34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 7,631$4,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,909.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 4,521$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,960.74 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 4,323$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 2,406$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.52 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 1,248$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.59 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 928.25$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.28 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 538.55$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd25…7d10backed San Francisco Giants | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 406.4$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 402.98$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 387.69$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.88 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 331.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.42 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 317.76$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.59 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 216$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.34 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 132$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 119$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 79.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 67.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 66.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 59.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 58.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 55.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 31c | 54.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…4aabbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 49.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked San Francisco Giants | 69c | 46.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 40.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 38.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 37.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 36.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 35.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 71c | 35.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 32.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 31.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 28.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 16.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.