MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98df306fda7acf46e6d4532463c6a8660185d0d98c4eef7e11fd334acc1f9145
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 4,213$2,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 3,168$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 47c | 2,172$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.76 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 2,131$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 1,246$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.75 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 937.79$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 882.49$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 732.6$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 27c | 728.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 42c | 511.47$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.92 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 35c | 455$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 48c | 451.96$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.94 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 432.96$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.82 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 74c | 315.45$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…3af7backed Under | 68c | 274.62$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…bb24backed Over | 40c | 252.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 70c | 116.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 51c | 76.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…39cfbacked Over | 49c | 37.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 50c | 23.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 71c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 72c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…f02fbacked Under | 68c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.