MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6d901ed4f049ccd915d73d0722a43e2077887bcee3a2a33b78429dcf99b270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 5,259$2,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 3,694$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,809.85 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 50c | 673.9$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.95 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 49c | 581.12$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.94 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 51c | 507.43$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 449.01$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 341.04$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.29 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 308.25$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 53c | 283.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 65c | 255$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 46c | 244.84$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 151.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 50c | 134.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 49c | 129.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 50c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 68c | 85.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 82.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 49c | 57.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 28c | 56.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 68c | 53.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 22c | 52.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 32c | 49.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…6c2cbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 31c | 47.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 52c | 33.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Over | 66c | 29.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 23.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7fdebacked Over | 51c | 23.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 51c | 22.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 59c | 17.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 71c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 69c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.