TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,558 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks54c1,074$584 inWon+$490.133,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants18c618.11$113 inLost-$112.648,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants64c438.2$282 inLost-$282.466,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants47c402.73$188 inLost-$188.4710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed San Francisco Giants19c370$70 inLost-$70.312143.8%53 W · 68 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Arizona Diamondbacks29c344.83$100 inWon+$244.8329331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked San Francisco Giants71c344.83$245 inLost-$244.8319248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks51c314.21$162 inWon+$152.558,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants20c305$59 inLost-$59.488,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants67c298.5$200 inLost-$2002,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants56c230.66$129 inLost-$128.6312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants47c182.01$85 inLost-$85.084,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants66c150.92$100 inLost-$99.612,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c104$62 inWon+$41.61,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed San Francisco Giants47c101$47 inLost-$47.4799744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks56c97.94$55 inWon+$42.8611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff66…39cfbacked San Francisco Giants19c80.06$15 inLost-$15.212646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked San Francisco Giants74c70$52 inLost-$51.81,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked San Francisco Giants56c60$34 inLost-$33.7527354.6%149 W · 124 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed San Francisco Giants66c57.81$38 inLost-$38.1573949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants69c53.77$37 inLost-$37.372,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants43c50$22 inLost-$21.73,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed San Francisco Giants22c47.72$10 inLost-$10.519442.3%82 W · 112 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Arizona Diamondbacks32c45$14 inWon+$30.551,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked San Francisco Giants40c39.25$16 inLost-$15.71,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Arizona Diamondbacks35c38.55$13 inWon+$25.0699624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked San Francisco Giants44c31.3$14 inLost-$13.847743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked San Francisco Giants66c30.64$20 inLost-$20.2266056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks37c30.2$11 inWon+$19.116,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Francisco Giants40c29$12 inLost-$11.61,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants51c23.66$12 inLost-$12.055,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed San Francisco Giants78c16.63$13 inLost-$12.951,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.