MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25a9461c2f345631e891ebbfc595b95ffceee9324259ee81d8b8d9dd75b920a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 7,461$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 4,567$3,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 3,920$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,836.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 979.6$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.88 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 848$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.8 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 832$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 504.93$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 415$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.05 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 360.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 339.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 213.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.44 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 209.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 205$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.59 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 182$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.86 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96b…eb54backed Cleveland Guardians | 17c | 129.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 122.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 105.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 72.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 51.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 49.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 46.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 38.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 38.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 37.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Kansas City Royals | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 35.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kansas City Royals | 54c | 30.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.