TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$289,138
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$289,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,138 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f21…0ec5backed Over49c254,554$124,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124,705.622352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under51c232,949$118,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114,144.842,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under51c10,130$5,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,947.6911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5a…63f9backed Under51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,900742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over49c8,275$4,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,054.764,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under52c5,940$3,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,851.292054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over48c3,333$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60039047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under51c3,069$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.516,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under52c3,028$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.421,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Under51c2,130$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.711952.9%63 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under52c1,667$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.161,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under52c1,148$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.2561947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under49c1,016$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.929655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under51c934.4$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.5525249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under51c844.51$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.862,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over53c722.08$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.767444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a99…8210backed Under51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under52c423.08$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.0850949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c7…8366backed Under49c408.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.271877.8%14 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+45.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under53c399.96$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.7912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Over47c399.75$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.8841149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under52c350$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16877050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under76c298.03$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.078,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under52c290.1$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.2528154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under53c283.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.021,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Under52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Under51c243.85$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.8531052.6%163 W · 147 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over50c234.66$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.345,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under51c227.55$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.51,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over45c196.71$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Under53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6824950.6%126 W · 123 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3704…5487backed Under52c178.73$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4715349.7%76 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Under52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over51c150$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7527248.5%132 W · 140 L-1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over33c143.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb97…7ae1backed Over28c137.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.578534.1%29 W · 56 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over48c126.7$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.371,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Under52c112.66$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7940148.1%193 W · 208 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Over48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5049649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4812549.6%62 W · 63 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Over48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Under75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.981154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4978454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…c2d0backed Under52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.152339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over45c95.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2261948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over49c85.88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.688,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.42347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Under51c68.16$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.450954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under60c67.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.141,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Over49c61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8917645.5%80 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under55c59.86$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6867742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over38c53.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.35,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Under52c52.96$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4229255.8%163 W · 129 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over48c52.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3565549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520955.5%116 W · 93 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over49c52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2239344.3%174 W · 219 L-22.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under49c51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0121353.5%114 W · 99 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5886…b8ffbacked Under50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1c…0be3backed Under52c48.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.086145.9%28 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Over30c44.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3599744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4135…185fbacked Under51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.225050%25 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x404c…5c87backed Over49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.647556%42 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28be…03fcbacked Under52c33.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.021060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Over51c32.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7484140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b5…b692backed Under51c31.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3719148.2%92 W · 99 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under51c31.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2629752.5%156 W · 141 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed Under76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.152040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under56c29.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.265,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd6…6939backed Under50c29.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.583053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over51c28.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8514358.7%84 W · 59 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under51c27.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.674,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over49c26.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.072,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Under49c24.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5510449%51 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45cf…0f46backed Under52c23.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.219735.1%34 W · 63 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc47d…feeebacked Under52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under52c19.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.533,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under55c19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.532,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.