MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe000e9e210e81c18d49813f87c210d41c3fa1ba707433e4546a59e8fdcbe6372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f21…0ec5backed Over | 41c | 10,897$4,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,467.97 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 8,774$5,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,605.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 3,708$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.59 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 2,803$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 1,475$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.21 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 946.27$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.51 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 42c | 884.93$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.75 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 55c | 781.44$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.65 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 60c | 600$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c2…e9bfbacked Under | 57c | 425$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 18c | 363.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 41c | 350$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.32 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 80c | 334$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 59c | 297.6$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 59c | 290$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 14c | 254$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 55c | 253.8$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 44c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 60c | 135.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 32c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 65.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…e194backed Under | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Under | 69c | 29.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Under | 60c | 24.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.