MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4377d787529eec055867efc0bf4795901c7363d46bd384f6c9f404295d703e45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 6,649$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.45 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 4,265$3,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.99 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 1,536$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.94 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 816.82$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.22 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 320$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 237.22$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 235.16$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 233.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 201.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 99.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 92.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 89.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 83.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 54.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 51.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 51.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 47.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 44.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 34.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 33.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 26.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 25.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 22.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.