Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25b6597d6bf78793ce83eca4568bb5a8ce0f0f07937e79b2fe1dc48f6a324999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 1,392$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.52 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 548.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 45c | 373$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 6c | 372.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 27c | 351$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 60c | 296$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 283.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 38c | 243.87$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 7c | 215$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 211.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 46c | 209$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 171.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 67c | 148.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 70c | 143$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 130.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 66c | 121.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 119.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 39c | 118.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 107.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 45c | 106.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 51c | 105.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 51c | 100.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 12c | 98.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 96.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 91.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 86.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 32c | 82.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 32c | 82.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 82.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 77.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 32c | 76.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 75.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 71.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 22c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 40c | 55.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 42c | 53.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 50c | 47.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 43c | 39.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 65c | 36.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 57c | 33.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 31c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…73e1backed Yes | 64c | 30.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 63c | 30.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 63c | 30.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 40c | 29.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 52c | 28.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 52c | 28.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 49c | 27.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 25.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 50c | 25.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 63c | 21.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…963dbacked Yes | 64c | 20.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 51c | 19.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 57c | 18.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.