Earnings · resolved market
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25d6fa1f15039d717043a595712090f65c0cefabed3254adc285086a5f953a68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,195 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7fc…378dbacked No | 0c | 4,260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 20c | 799.95$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.99 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5041…e9dbbacked Yes | 79c | 764.15$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…3d2abacked Yes | 80c | 617.59$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 19c | 615.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.06 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 20c | 508$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…c537backed No | 23c | 438.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 18c | 431.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…4d45backed Yes | 77c | 407$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…7f28backed No | 15c | 367.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…87eebacked No | 31c | 354.52$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 21c | 296.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…696ebacked No | 24c | 210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f69…6fd2backed Yes | 75c | 206.53$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…dd94backed No | 19c | 206.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 20c | 172$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 19c | 166.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 161.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…9577backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 123.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 76c | 104.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9378…5703backed Yes | 79c | 103.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…9df1backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…7ebdbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…ea28backed Yes | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…b2a8backed No | 37c | 93.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9084…6732backed Yes | 80c | 92.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…0bfcbacked No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed No | 20c | 82.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Yes | 70c | 80.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 31c | 79.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…69cfbacked No | 33c | 77.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049c…a244backed No | 24c | 73.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…10cdbacked No | 27c | 73.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 20c | 70.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 22c | 66.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 21c | 66.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…5cffbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e50abacked Yes | 75c | 62.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…8336backed No | 20c | 54.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed No | 29c | 52.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf74c…434cbacked No | 20c | 51.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…319ebacked Yes | 79c | 43.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…62f1backed Yes | 79c | 42.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 40.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 52c | 22.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6392…badcbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5e…4e7dbacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9616…4267backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 76c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…7dfabacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.