Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25df95e445b5ea361371407a02e18e93bf26b0990c470d2eb9197f61a469fe4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 13c | 412.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 13c | 358.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 12c | 349.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 332.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 4c | 312.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 5c | 258$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 14c | 238$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 8c | 203$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 7c | 202.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 24c | 198.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 184.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 180.48$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 14c | 176.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 76c | 176$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 160.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 14c | 149.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 23c | 144.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 18c | 140.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes | 12c | 137.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 22c | 117$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 12c | 113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 17c | 109.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 18c | 101.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 15c | 100.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 97.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 86.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 82.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe266…03b5backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 77.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 79c | 76.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 18c | 72.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…cd63backed Yes | 14c | 72.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 67.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 76c | 62.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 23c | 56.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 24c | 52.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 27c | 48.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 48.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 22c | 47.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 22c | 46.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked Yes | 24c | 43.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…f9efbacked No | 75c | 32.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 78c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 19.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bef…cca4backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 17.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 78c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed No | 79c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.