Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe6b01386e44f20ef2dddf0cd3f4adbbd04e43666aeebba1b9684d8615044ef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3240…f6ebbacked Yes | 34c | 1,288$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb44b…3b96backed Yes | 42c | 883.67$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 2c | 632.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 380.68$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 5c | 363.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 361.19$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.74 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 342.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 16c | 298.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 279.84$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 34c | 258.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked No | 4c | 256.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 248.25$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 24c | 246.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 245.42$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.32 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 16c | 240.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 237.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 34c | 227.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 11c | 208.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 46c | 199.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.27 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 28c | 198.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed No | 50c | 198.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 56c | 177.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 169.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 52c | 165.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 157.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 18c | 157.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 152.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 33c | 149.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 147$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 129.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 65c | 129.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 125.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 123.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 112.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 39c | 105.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 67c | 89.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 82.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 59c | 81.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 62c | 80.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 35c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 77.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 76.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 46c | 71.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 66.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 66.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 65.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 65.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked Yes | 65c | 62.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 60.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 59c | 59.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 56.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 59c | 52.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6b5dbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7584…d6e6backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 48.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed No | 34c | 47.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed No | 35c | 44.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 44.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…ebe8backed Yes | 65c | 40.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 51c | 38.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 39c | 38.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…f9efbacked No | 64c | 38.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5acebacked No | 66c | 37.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 49c | 36.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 35.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 69c | 35.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 42c | 35.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…a3d2backed Yes | 32c | 31.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69f…e526backed Yes | 37c | 30.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5a…24d6backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 66c | 28.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 55c | 27.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 62c | 27.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 40c | 25.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…5ab2backed No | 41c | 25.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 24.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 57c | 24.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.