TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3240…f6ebbacked Yes34c1,288$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.88922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb44b…3b96backed Yes42c883.67$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.47560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No2c632.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.267,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c380.68$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked No5c363.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6742820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No66c361.19$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.741,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No31c342.27$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.754,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Yes52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.37536%27 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No16c298.97$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.053,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No63c279.84$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.518,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No34c258.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.283,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked No4c256.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8210023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No4c250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.161820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes56c248.25$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.015,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No24c246.56$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7874926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No65c245.42$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.322,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8cd…0d51backed No16c240.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4714250.7%72 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No49c237.6$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.042,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No34c227.48$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2722550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No11c208.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.931,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7461…3515backed Yes46c199.57$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.272532%8 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No28c198.63$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.886847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed01…89b7backed No50c198.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007552%39 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes56c177.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No15c169.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.636,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No52c165.58$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.723146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No53c157.59$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.972,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked No18c157.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0328742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes33c152.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.664,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes32c150$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1024,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No33c149.07$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.411,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No26c147$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.285,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No64c129.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.122,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No65c129.05$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2121268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c125.21$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.047,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c123.75$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.529,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes44c112.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5345238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No39c105.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4457044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-41.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed No67c89.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No21c82.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes59c81.83$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5518945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No62c80.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9968867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No35c79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6515236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes39c77.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.551,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No28c76.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.511,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes46c71.27$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1631936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c66.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.473,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c66.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.369,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No63c65.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes34c65.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.071,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked Yes65c62.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.876059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes35c60.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7887437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed No64c59.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.398543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes59c59.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.386439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.143930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No62c56.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.62,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No59c52.95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2449551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2985049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6b5dbacked No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.993243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7584…d6e6backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes59c48.04$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9008…09f0backed No34c47.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0811939.5%47 W · 72 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed No35c44.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.475540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes36c44.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.267336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc239…ebe8backed Yes65c40.88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.311070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.417831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes51c38.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9424451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Yes39c38.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.679541.1%39 W · 56 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0bb3…f9efbacked No64c38.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.99785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick74cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82d8…03eabacked Yes39c38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1811612.1%14 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b3e…5acebacked No66c37.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0447935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes49c36.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.613551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No58c35.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes69c35.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9838146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes42c35.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3671649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes34c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.191833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb4…a3d2backed Yes32c31.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.642334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6115027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd69f…e526backed Yes37c30.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.972114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.534846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes36c29.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.191,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe5a…24d6backed Yes37c29.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.89229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-66.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes66c28.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.652,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No57c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9689557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee88…49a4backed No55c27.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.216543.1%28 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes62c27.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.322,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No58c26.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.111,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes40c25.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.512630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ebb…5ab2backed No41c25.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3533962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.517165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No62c24.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.571,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes57c24.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.757835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.