Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35b11b22f6c96820b97b473245db39321eae75b1526d22996c76146afdf83c24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22e0…3adbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 75c | 508.72$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 29c | 300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 268.54$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 12c | 240.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 176.68$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 28c | 168.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 168.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4c…5c11backed No | 79c | 166.4$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 67c | 138.53$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 15c | 130.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 26c | 118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 70c | 109.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 109.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 103.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 100.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 99.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 18c | 97.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 31c | 95.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 15c | 93.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 89.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 14c | 88.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 22c | 82.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 18c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes | 16c | 63.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 28c | 53.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 52.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 45.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 45.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes | 32c | 44.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…3a4ebacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 68c | 37.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 75c | 34.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 31c | 33.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 34c | 30.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 72c | 28.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed No | 71c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9ed8backed No | 69c | 19.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…528bbacked No | 70c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 13.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.