Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f8e002ce1041cd096868d11d0f8f539cc1dcb8ab6dac635a14a95bd45645ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 633.02$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.48 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 8c | 420.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 385.97$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 45c | 350.35$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.17 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 295.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 257.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.3 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 55c | 244.85$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.67 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 242.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.2 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 238.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 213.42$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 183$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 165.79$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 161.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 159.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 152.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 150.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 42c | 144.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 43c | 144.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 140.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 139.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 58c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 42c | 109.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 53c | 109.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 97.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 53c | 84.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 78.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 51c | 78.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 65.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 59c | 59.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 76c | 59.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 43c | 57.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 43c | 53.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 48.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 52c | 48.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 53c | 44.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 42.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 36c | 41.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 48c | 37.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 34.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 63c | 34.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 46c | 31.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Yes | 77c | 28.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 54c | 25.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 58c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 22.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 55c | 21.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked No | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 56c | 18.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked No | 55c | 18.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.