Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2438e31ff1be534e9efdde7257a78c783aef0ba1882fd8e0e2f5eec068ee5fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,025$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 489.29$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 355.58$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 289.52$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 59c | 288$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 254.88$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 242.06$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 153.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 76c | 151.89$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 34c | 135$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 111.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 39c | 111.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 76c | 104.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 92.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 88.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 85.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 82.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 81.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked No | 66c | 79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 78.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 39c | 54.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked No | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 64c | 51.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 68c | 50.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 47.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 46.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 39c | 43.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 35c | 40.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 35c | 37.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 36.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…9f3cbacked Yes | 43c | 36.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 34.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 32.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 30.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 25.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 24.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 58c | 21.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 17.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.