Dota2 · resolved market
Team Spirit vs MOUZ: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25fc3990b8e6ac69759d18af027b5495b0e9585a0150b1cda71e8dde4d260c53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 57c | 844.73$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.48 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 56c | 718.57$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.56 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yes | 31c | 671.13$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.37 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 39c | 625.6$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.68 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 45c | 562.05$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.98 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3a…5678backed No | 67c | 465.14$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 23c | 310$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.8 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Yes | 21c | 284.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 229.14$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 194.47$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.52 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…878ebacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Yes | 26c | 131.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…8a71backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Yes | 33c | 103.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 63c | 73.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…8f39backed Yes | 42c | 72.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 60.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 75c | 44.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 66c | 39.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 57c | 32.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 43c | 30.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked No | 73c | 18.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Team Spirit vs MOUZ: Draw (1-1)?this page
- MOUZ to win 2-0?No won
- Team Spirit to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.