Dota2 · resolved market
Team Spirit to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1533fbf3c4ef438f0fb7cedeefc24a4e21b000d03fbeb08e09fbe1e817ea2f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 63c | 7,992$5,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,070.92 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 35c | 2,857$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.05 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 31c | 1,822$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.18 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yes | 69c | 1,758$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.17 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed No | 34c | 1,567$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.28 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked No | 31c | 1,528$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.63 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 35c | 1,500$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.19 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…50e2backed Yes | 69c | 1,428$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 39c | 911.75$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.67 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 701.4$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.17 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6729…f17dbacked No | 32c | 666.39$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…b46abacked No | 32c | 663.24$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed No | 34c | 525$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa8…cae6backed Yes | 68c | 514.71$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed No | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed Yes | 69c | 330.65$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.55 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Yes | 73c | 320$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.1 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 44c | 301.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed No | 34c | 279.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 37c | 269.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.46 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…57b5backed Yes | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 348 | 60.1%209 W · 139 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed No | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Yes | 68c | 249.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 43c | 234.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked No | 32c | 234.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yes | 58c | 233.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.56 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 229.15$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.95 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 56c | 217.78$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Yes | 68c | 214.41$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 40c | 206.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 30c | 200.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 36c | 194.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.77 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes | 63c | 146.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked No | 29c | 136.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 27c | 133.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…6aa1backed No | 32c | 121.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cb…082bbacked Yes | 69c | 108.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 33c | 104.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 62c | 97.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…c195backed Yes | 67c | 92.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 129 | 66.7%86 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Yes | 66c | 88.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 59c | 78.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed No | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 68c | 67.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 67c | 67.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 34c | 66.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…258abacked No | 28c | 65.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Yes | 65c | 60.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Yes | 52c | 55.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yes | 52c | 43.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked No | 42c | 39.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 38.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 31c | 32.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…052cbacked No | 44c | 32.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 36c | 31.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Yes | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Team Spirit to win 2-0?this page
- MOUZ to win 2-0?No won
- Team Spirit vs MOUZ: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.