Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25fe4f0d623da8b9202314313bff75da3bb519fd36d459b4c50270e53057fef6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 7c | 994.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.37 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 843.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 22c | 445.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.77 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 24c | 311$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 298.73$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 66c | 270$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 28c | 248.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.15 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 173.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 170$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 31c | 165$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 155.32$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 41c | 146.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 70c | 142.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 141.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.82 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 139.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 45c | 138$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 136.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 134.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 40c | 133.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed Yes | 69c | 124.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 123.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 117.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 59c | 105.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 100.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb93…45bfbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 98.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 19c | 90.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 86.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 64c | 80.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 69c | 68.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 62.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 72c | 62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 61.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 61.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 61.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 55.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 69c | 52.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 51.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 50.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…0dacbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 46.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 55c | 44.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 30c | 43.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 65c | 40.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 37c | 40.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 36.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 34c | 35.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 34.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 33.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 28.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 28.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 71c | 25.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 78c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 65c | 19.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 18.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 18.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 17.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 16.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 15.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.