TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Houston be 84°F or higher on April 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes36c778.14$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.894,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes44c481.64$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce5d…5b70backed Yes39c400.55$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.718632.6%28 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes47c391.2$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.445,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c307.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.817,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No56c275.47$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.961,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked No62c249.98$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.997542.7%32 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed No76c247.09$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.814926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed Yes71c214.11$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9366144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes24c179.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.341,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No43c159.47$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.962,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No60c142.11$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6763656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No52c133.57$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.451,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes28c132.58$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes54c121.86$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8834250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No41c121.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7846626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No80c118.86$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.531542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a91…983fbacked Yes43c115.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5113942.4%59 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed05…9368backed No26c115.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.91723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-62.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No52c101.62$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.157,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes38c98.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.034,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b5…4768backed Yes39c95.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.832254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes45c93.97$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5437533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No52c92.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0624370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab6…0a4cbacked No52c91.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-76.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd011…0b65backed No37c91.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.073253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes55c85.76$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4221142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No60c84.7$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked No55c83.9$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4833243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes50c83.1$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.556137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2c51…7c37backed Yes32c79.01$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.485933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes27c78.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0351321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes42c76.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1714544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes41c56.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.416324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes35c56.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.542049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes55c55.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.912,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaba1…ac85backed No53c55.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1311259.8%67 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Yes72c54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.12580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes46c52.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2513322.6%30 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed No65c51.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0318845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x857f…ddb7backed No59c51.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed No58c50.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5440739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f90…4e02backed Yes48c49.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6814613.7%20 W · 126 L-19.1wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x50fc…935bbacked No54c46.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No55c46.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.593734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes30c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6282…978bbacked No51c43.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.311090%9 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick62cpaid+47.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes74c43.35$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.271,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaba0…c777backed Yes44c42.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.03837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No53c42.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.551,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x713b…c916backed Yes46c41.12$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.211931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafb8…7451backed Yes37c39.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.489335.5%33 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c38.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.484,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No44c37.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.682,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes51c37.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2720750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes38c37.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9517138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c5…36d1backed No42c36.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.182951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e9…fba8backed Yes38c34.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.659714.4%14 W · 83 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed Yes55c34.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7110059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes30c34.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1440741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed Yes57c34.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8123547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No41c32.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.414,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f2…c2a5backed Yes62c30.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.633275%24 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes48c30.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7840242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No60c30.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.041,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f5…0a7ebacked Yes47c29.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.572638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff9…a21abacked No53c28.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.28138.3%31 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed No48c27.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.148466.7%56 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c71…431fbacked No64c25.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.752969%20 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3c…c0bfbacked No58c24.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.37837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x069e…4636backed No52c24.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.853447.1%16 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed Yes62c23.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8417376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a98…9c69backed No48c23.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.191414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No54c22.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.529959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No68c22.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6186173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes59c22.35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2393837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No48c20.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x142a…a44abacked No75c20.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6517945.3%81 W · 98 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed Yes61c19.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.89666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes54c19.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0235362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed Yes65c18.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked Yes59c17.27$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0218272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes68c17.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.541,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes70c17.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.022544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No64c17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.831170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.