Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a74818bd044d2b928ac8e3eef777e79e0d8ceaf75d25d79611e1ab1bae56bf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d6b…fa11backed Yes | 0c | 18,002$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 25c | 1,756$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.27 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 78c | 1,488$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.41 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 586.34$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.74 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 524.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 508.11$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 66c | 458.08$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.31 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 434.37$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 72c | 414.27$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 370.46$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.09 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 285.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 280.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 248.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 75c | 215.54$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.71 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 27c | 211.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.1 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 36c | 202.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 16c | 202.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.75 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 47c | 146.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 142.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 46c | 120.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 30c | 111.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 105.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 103$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 25c | 99.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 98.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 93.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 36c | 91.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 22c | 80.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 27c | 80.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 76c | 76.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 37c | 74.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 35c | 73.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3e…f079backed No | 27c | 72.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +263.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 69.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 35c | 66.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 77c | 63.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 73c | 59.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 50.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…a9afbacked No | 78c | 49.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 79c | 49.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 29c | 43.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 29c | 41.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 53c | 40.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 72c | 40.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 62c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 61c | 38.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 71c | 36.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 70c | 35.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 34.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 29.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 72c | 26.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 26.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 48c | 25.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 71c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1c…e255backed No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 71c | 19.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 69c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 17.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…49d5backed No | 73c | 17.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 16.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 74c | 16.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 70c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85e…de9ebacked No | 75c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 75c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 84°F or higher on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.