MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x267892ca9a7aafe106518b58071c762232f742f334aef693e90c8146059aa788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 78c | 206.66$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 72c | 153.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de6…4612backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 93.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 73.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 22c | 48.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 38.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.